Fundamental Analysis Using DCF and Multiples Valuation
Prepared By: Arsen Tagibekov
Date: April 2025
This project presents a full-scale fundamental valuation of Emaar Properties PJSC, one of the leading real estate developers in the Middle East. The valuation is based on a fully integrated 3-statement financial model, along with both Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Multiples Valuation methodologies.
The objective is to estimate Emaar's intrinsic value using scenario-based forecasting and benchmark it against industry peers, offering a structured investment view supported by rigorous financial modeling.
- DCF Valuation with 3 scenarios (Optimistic, Base, Worst)
- WACC: 8.5%
- Terminal Growth Rate: 0.5%
- Multiples Valuation using EV/Revenue and EV/EBIT
- Peer Group: Aldar Properties (UAE), Sun Hung Kai (HK), Mitsui Fudosan (JP)
| Methodology | EV (AED Bn) | EV (USD Bn) |
|---|---|---|
| DCF - Optimistic | 286.03 | 77.87 |
| DCF - Base | 222.43 | 60.56 |
| DCF - Worst | 187.27 | 50.99 |
| Multiples Range | 97.8–134.8 | 26.6–36.7 |
Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 3.673 AED
The triangulated valuation range highlights that Emaar is currently undervalued based on both intrinsic and relative measures.
- ** Company Overview:** Detailed PDF outlining Emaar's business segments, key assets, and macro context
- ** Financial Model:** Excel file with 3-statement integration, assumptions, DCF, and dashboards
- ** Multiples Valuation:** Peer comparison in Excel using public company comps
- ** Final Report:** PDF valuation report including assumptions, scenarios, outputs, and recommendation
- Advanced Financial Modeling
- Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis
- DCF Valuation (FCFF Method)
- Multiples Benchmarking
- Business Analysis & Industry Research
- Excel Automation & Structure
The valuation supports a Buy recommendation, with long-term upside potential if Emaar sustains its revenue growth and margin performance. Future monitoring of Dubai macro trends and real estate cycles is advised.
This project was completed as part of a professional portfolio demonstrating financial analyst capabilities for real-world investment valuation scenarios.